Aseem Dhru, CEO HDFC Securities
Temperament is as important to wealth creation as techniques. Investors must keep their balance and not take decisions in irrational panic.
An investor must re-look at his asset allocations. Unlike the Western world, Indian investors have always been far more conservative and savvy, holding their assets in cash, fixed deposits with banks, gold and property and hardly three per cent of households have direct equity investments. Investors must get their portfolio reviewed by professionals as they
may be holding dud stocks, which are only going to erode further.
The markets right now are typically right for SIPs with mutual funds. SIPs free you from the worry of being able to time the market and volatility ensures that one is able to enter the market in a calibrated manner, averaging the cost of holdings.
In the present economic environment, a lot of investors are also worried about possible job loss or contraction in their earnings. Two years of your household expense should be in bank fixed deposits to ensure that any eventuality can be taken care of.
These markets are right for investments, in say Gilt Funds, to give you a higher return than the stock market over the short term. As interest rates soften, bonds will appreciate and provide good returns on investments.
In the equity market, many stocks are available below their intrinsic value. It is time to make some bold moves, as they will pay off with an 18-24 month window.
Market outlook till 2010
The stock markets have discounted the worse. We are seeing real economy play catch up. Companies are battling slowing demand, rising operating costs, falling rupee, credit crunch and costly borrowings. On the other hand, falling commodity prices have provided a huge relief.
Over the next four quarters, we will see the impact of this in corporate profits. In 2010, investors will look back and wish they had used the opportunity created in 2008 to pick up stocks in extreme waves of panic at irrational prices.
C J George, MD, Geojit Financial
Buy stocks of companies whose promoters and managements are known for honesty, integrity and capability and who can keep their businesses globally competitive. The companies should have reasonable pricing power vis-à-vis vendors and customers to protect margins in times of adversity.
Pick companies that have either cash surplus or very low debt and whose businesses are less fixed and working capital-intensive.
One should go with companies that have strong domestic business models and are able to balance out exports and imports to avoid agonies caused by foreign exchange fluctuations.
Choose stocks that are available at a fair value. An emphasis on valuations at the time of
buying provides a good margin of safety by minimising the risk inherent with equity investments. Simultaneously, one should ensure that he earns high absolute returns over the long term. Some parameters that investors should consider include: low P/E, low price to book value, high dividend yield, low replacement cost, among others.
Investment horizon should ideally be spanning a period of three to five years.
Market outlook till 2010
Going ahead, corporate earnings would improve following reduced commodity prices. An unfavourable impact of these might last for a quarter or two more. Thereafter, a good jump in demand is expected. As monsoon has been reasonably good in this kharif season, and the rabi season is also expected to be good due to late rains, it is expected to bolster growth in demand. As such, we could see a revival in corporate performance from January 2009 onwards. That may also be supported by increased infusion of liquidity by the RBI and increased government spending on infrastructure projects. All this could influence an up-cycle. With crude oil prices coming down and staying at around $ 55-60 from the peak of $140, India's current account deficit may come down drastically or may even become a surplus.
Mohan Natarajan, Co-head, PCG, Edelweiss Securities
Buy shares with high growth potential. There could be several stocks trading at lower price-to-earning ratios, but one should buy only those stocks which have the potential to grow.
The rate of inflation and interest rates are coming down. Hence, look
at stocks that can take advantage of these factors. For example, banking
sector stocks could witness a surge in the days ahead.
One should not trade or invest in the market by borrowing money.
Stocks with stiff valuations should be avoided. Stocks with high PE ratio should be avoided.
Allocate a small portion of your wealth to trading strategies. While one should invest money with a long-term horizon, a small portion of the money should be used to trade and get benefit from short-term fluctuations.
Market outlook till 2010
The equity market may be range bound at lower levels. However, the
markets will present a good opportunity to buy shares of companies based on a value proposition.
Prasanth Prabhakaran, Sr VP, Kotak Securities
Before investing, figure out your risk appetite, duration of investment and the objective of investment plan.
It is important to understand that there is no short cut to wealth creation. Adopt a long-term approach.
Learn to stay calm. Don't follow herd mentality and change your investment plans based on market conditions.
Look at investing. In most cases, equity markets bounce back well before the end of a recession. Provided you have a long-term focus, this may be the best time to start investing.
Finally, investment requires continuous monitoring and re-looking at one's portfolio and the same cannot be done unless one takes a keen interest in the science of investing. In case you do not have the enough time, approach a good portfolio manager/mutual fund and start an SIP plan. Avoid thematic funds. Go for large-cap diversified funds.
Market outlook till 2010
The markets will remain muted and stay in the 9,500-10,500 range till mid 2010, with several sharp movements based on specific events. Post-March-April 2010, the global turmoil would have cooled off and a solution to the crisis would have been unravelled. However, as I have mentioned earlier, equity markets will lead the bounceback well before the end of the recession. The next two years will be a waiting period where an investor will need lots of patience and liquidity to come out with reasonable returns.
T S Harihar, senior VP, ICICI Securities
Focus on dividend-yield stocks. For example, Bongaigon Refineries and Chennai Petroleum have dividend yields of close to 13% while Wockhardt, HCL and Infosys have dividend yields close to 10%. These are tax-free returns, which makes them twice as attractive as any FD.
Take a hard look at your portfolio. Get rid of momentum stock, notwithstanding the loss. Most bounce-backs are led by frontline stocks. To the extent possible, let your portfolio be weighted in favour of frontline large-caps.
Understand the three dimensions of the market -- price, value and time. Today, prices of most stocks have corrected far in excess of the erosion in value. That makes them an attractive investment proposition. But remember bear markets never exhibit a V-shaped recovery. Your ability to hold on to stocks is very important at this moment.
There are no encores in the market. No two bull markets have ever been driven by the same set of stocks. In 1992 it was cement, in 2000 it was technology and in 2008, it was real estate. Watch out for the next stars. Take a look at the stocks in sectors like alternative energy, minerals, logistics, security systems and resources. And finally, keep in mind that whether it is a bull or bear market, your financial goals do not change. Equity is still likely to cause short-term pain and long-term gain.
Market outlook till 2010
Over the next two years, three factors will decide the direction of the markets: falling interest rates and inflation; institutional inflows and rupee-dollar parity; and structural changes. The markets in 2010 will depend a lot on the direction that Indian reforms takes.











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