Market to remain range-bound ahead of results

The market is expected to remain range bound with a positive bias this week.

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Amid lack of domestic triggers, investors are likely to look for global cues for direction. While investors will keep an eye on UK’s fourth quarter GDP growth number and Japan’s industrial output, triggers from the Euro zone — including consumer confidence index for March and the likely selling of Euro bonds by Greece — may also influence market direction during the week.

The market will remain closed on Friday on account of Good Friday.

Experts say rate-sensitive stocks may continue to remain under pressure this week.

“We don’t see any immediate trigger for the market this week. We believe the interest-sensitive stocks will continue to remain under stress as the Reserve Bank of India is likely to tighten the money policies further in its April policy review. The real estate counter may be hit the most as the sector is already struggling with low demand. Although valuations in this space look attractive, investors may have to wait for a long time to see sustained momentum on this counter,” said Gajendra Nagpal, CEO of Union Financial.

The BSE realty index was the worst performer among BSE sectoral indices last week. The 14-stock index dropped 4.05 per cent to close at 3,205.65 on Friday.

Nagpal, for one, is positive on the market. On last week’s run-up in the healthcare stocks he said, “Healthcare stocks are soaring on expectations on large multinationals acquiring Indian pharma companies. The likely rise in demand from the US to promote low-cost generic drug makers may have also helped sentiments.”

Meanwhile, the rate of inflation for food articles slipped to 16.22 per cent for the week ended on March 13 against 16.30 per cent in the previous week.

Some analysts are of view that the forthcoming monsoon forecasts may have some influence on Dalal Street as a good monsoon can help ease the inflationary pressure to a great extent.

Alex K Mathews, head of research at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, said, “The forecast for the southwest monsoon for 2010 will be a major trigger for the market and rains are expected to be good this time. April will see the RBI money policy meet, which is expected to come out with another round of hike in bank rates putting pressure on banks to raise interest rates.”

The Sensex climbed 66.52 points, or 0.38 per cent, last week to end at 17,644.76. The 50-stock index advanced 19.20 points, or 0.36 per cent, to 5,282. The market saw 65.70 per cent rollover to the April series, which was less compared with the previous expiry. However, the open interest moved up.

“Options data for April depicts more or less uniform build-up in puts between 4,800 and 5,200. The implied volatility is pegged at 17.23 per cent, mainly due to buying of options by FIIs to hedge their portfolios,” brokerage Angel Broking said in a note.

The put-call ratios of Canara Bank, HDFC Bank and PNB in terms of open interest for the near-month expiry stood at 5, 1.82, and 1.68, respectively, reflecting bearish sentiment on these counters.

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