Infy results, industrial data to steer market

The June quarter results of IT bellwether Infosys, industrial production data for May and

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monthly inflation numbers will set the mood for the market this week.

Some analysts said the revenue guidance of Infosys will be a key trigger for IT stocks. On the technical front, marketmen expect the rally to continue this week, but a small correction cannot be ruled out.

“The market is looking bullish on the daily chart pattern. We see a minor upside at 5,362 level after which the market may move up to 5,440. Chances of a small correction cannot be ruled out. The market has come out of the consolidation phase that we saw in the past two weeks. Major support levels are seen at 5,320 and 5,250,” said Yashwant Rajput, assistant vice-president of retail research (technicals), at Asit C Mehta.

Broking houses expect Infosys to post decent results for the June quarter, but have raised concerns over its guidance for the next quarter by the IT pivot.

“We expect Infosys to beat its first quarter revenue guidance by 1.6 per cent at the higher end. But we believe that the guidance upgrade for the financial year could be muted at nearly one per cent given the cautiousness stemming from the euro zone crisis and likely client-specific impact,” said an Ambit Research report.

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Capitals, said, “Infosys has performed decently even in tough times. Though there are concerns over revenues from the euro zone, the low guidance will not hurt sentiment as Infosys is known to be conservative when it comes to predictions. The company always meets market expectations.”

According to median estimates of 23 analysts by Bloomberg, the industrial growth figures for May will come high at 16.20 per cent against 17.60 per cent in the previous month. In an estimate of 18 analysts, the monthly inflation for June may inch up to 10.90 per cent against 10.16 per cent in the previous month.

“Good industrial numbers are obviously a good indicator of the macro economy. But for now, we believe the market has already factored in the booming economy trigger and, hence, it may not add to sentiments majorly,” said Thunuguntla.

The BSE Sensex rose 372.59 points, or 2.13 per cent, last week to end at 17,833.54. The 50-stock index added 115.35 points, or 2.20 per cent, to 5,269.05.

“On the domestic front, expectations of better than expected quarterly results, good monsoon, the Sebi move to cut the exposure margins on stock derivatives and upward growth revision of India’s GDP growth forecast by IMF was positive cues which drove our market last week. This week we are going to see the quarterly numbers of Infosys along with Exide, Moser Baer, Sintex and Hotel Leela. Nifty faces resistance at 5,366 above which it can move towards a 5,400-plus level,” said Alex K Mathew, head of research at Geojit BNP Paribas.

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