India's energy demand to outpace China and Russia by 2035
Jan 16 2014 , New Delhi
"Global energy demand continues to grow but that growth is slowing and mainly driven by emerging economies - led by China and India," according to the BP Energy Outlook 2035.
India's energy production, it said, will rise by 112 per cent (from 344 million tonnes oil equivalent in 2012 to 729.4 million tonnes in 2035) while consumption grows by 132 per cent.
The nation, which will in seven years become the world's third largest energy consumer, will see energy demand rise from 563.5 million tonnes oil equivalent to 786.1 million tonnes by 2020. It will soar to 938.6 million tonnes by 2025 and to 1307.5 million tonnes by 2035, the report said.
"India's demand growth of 132 per cent outpaces each of the BRIC countries as Russia (20 per cent), China (71 per cent), and Brazil (71 per cent) all expand slower. India's growth is almost double the non-OECD aggregate of 69 per cent," it said.
Its share of global demand rises to 7 per cent in 2035, accounting for the second largest share of the BRIC countries after China's 27 per cent. Russia at 5 per cent and Brazil at 3 per cent follow in that order.
BP Energy Outlook said the country's oil imports will rise by 169 per cent and account for over 60 per cent of the net increase in imports, followed by increasing imports of gas (573 per cent) and coal (85 per cent).
"Demand for all fossil fuels expands led by gas (183 per cent), oil (121 per cent) and coal (108 per cent) while renewables in power expand by 539 per cent as does nuclear (366 per cent) and hydro (127 per cent)," it said.
India's energy mix evolves very slowly over the next 20 years with fossil fuels accounting for 87 per cent of demand in 2035, compared to a global average of 81 per cent. This is down from 92 per cent today.
Its energy production as a share of consumption drops from 61 per cent today to just 56 per cent by 2035 as imports rise by 163 per cent.
"Declines in oil production (by 25 per cent) is made up by increases in gas (44 per cent) and coal (116 per cent)," it said.
Coal remains the dominant fuel produced in India with a 66 per cent market share in 2035. Renewables in power overtakes oil as the second largest, increasing from 3 per cent to 10 per cent in 2035 as oil drops from 12 per cent to 4 per cent.
According to BP, India's energy intensity is 32 per cent lower than today's level compared to a BRIC average decline of 46 per cent. Despite slower intensity improvement, per capita demand is 60 per cent below the BRIC average.