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These elections saw Indian voters rewarding leaders and parties in states such as Bihar, Delhi and Orissa that have provided corruption-free, pro-growth governance. With this result and its previous performance, there is little doubt that the team comprising Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi (who led the party’s campaign) will focus on their aims with the recent stability and near-majority that the party now commands.
If the election results provide a message it is that the party cannot afford to provide any excuses on delivering on its promises, considering that the people of India who elected their representatives are looking towards only them for a focused national policy that promotes development and provides for stable government. In simple words, Congress cannot afford to become complacent.
Given the strong mandate, it appears that Indian foreign policy will be focused on domestic issues, including confidence building measures with neighbours such as Pakistan, and putting back those issues that have staggered business and economic cooperation. Although the ruling Congress would ensure that security doesn’t take a back seat, it would try to promote the peace process that has long lost its momentum.
The Mumbai terror attacks last November would probably lead the ruling party to support the US efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan — not through direct involvement, but probably by taking the route of exerting global pressure on Islamabad for taking strict measures against terror groups. In this light, there is a chance that the US might emerge as a crucial partner where both the ruling Congress and opposition realise the need to work with their counterparts in Washington more closely. Also, with the defeat of the Left, there seems to be a heavy chance of a rise in US presence in Indian defence and nuclear industry.
India could lobby on behalf of the powerful Indian IT sector and flex its muscles against the growing anti-outsourcing threat in the US. Although Washington might also look at India to moderate the growing influence of China, which would be further strengthened given the Left-wing parties’ anti-American impact on Indian foreign policy vanishes. But this does not mean a clean and empty road for Washington to open its contracts to India overseas, as between the two lie a number of strong competitors from countries such as France, Russia, Israel, Britain and Sweden.
Another important area that should not be forgotten in this election is the Indian province of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Elections in J&K have always been a fearful event due to calls to shun voting by militants and separatists, as well as attacks on voters and the voting process. The anti-India political parties have often boycotted the democratic process, and voter turnout has also been quite low.
The J&K government, led by chief minister Omar Abdullah, heads the coalition between his National Conference (NC) party and Congress. The alliance bet-ween NC and Congress has reaped electoral benefits for both parties. Unlike the separatist groups, the NC has a history of backing the Indian government for armed action against any insurgency, as seen in Kargil, and has always urged New Delhi to resume the peace process with Pakistan, that lost its lustre after the Mumbai terror attacks in November. The separatists have chosen to remain out of the electoral process, but their calls for freedom for Kashmir enjoy less and less traction, as the new generation of local leadership under Omar and Mehbooba Mufti of the People’s Democratic Party focus on development, tourism and growth.
Last, on the economic front, with the Congress in the forefront of promoting free-market reforms, it is not a surprise that the Indian stock market has started recovering amid the economic crisis looming large in the global world. This, in concrete terms, means key reforms in insurance, pension funds, banking and retail are now likely to get enacted. As finance minister in the early 1990s, Manmohan Singh initiated our country on the path to greater economic Glasnost (openness), shifting away from decades of socialist-style policies. But over the past five years, the Left, which saw its seats more than halved in the month-long election, blocked many additional market re-forms that Congress backed. Now, India is likely to open its insurance, retail and banking sectors to greater foreign investment. The new government has its task cut out. How it addresses the challenges that lie ahead will determine the course of India’s polity, its economy and its role in the global arena.


















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