I understand every person requires 2,400 kilocalories per day to sustain himself. In that case, is 250 million tonnes foodgrains production enough to feed the entire 1.2 billion population?

It is an old debate that one requires 2,400 kilocalories. If you go by 2,400 to 2,500 kilocalories requirement, India has to be importing 100 million tonnes of foodgrains every year. But, the fact is the current foodgrains production is not being consumed.

Is it because purchasing power is low in the country?

If you start consuming 2,400 kilocalories per day, you will go out of shape. It all depends on what sort of physical work one is doing. The world is now rethinking on calorie requirement. Having said that, the bottom 30 per cent of our population need to get more food. The need is of the hour is a more diversified and protein-based diet. That is where the prices are high. Because our policy is obsessed with food grain production.

We might be having record 251 million tonne of foodgrain out this year, but it is still less than half of 570 million tonnes foodgrains production in China. Is it the reason for high food inflation in the country?

China’s foodgrains consumption is not fully for human beings. Out of 570 million tonnes food grains production, 150 million tonnes is maize it is for feeding animals. In poultry, conversion rate is 2:1, that is, one chicken requires two kg of foodgrain to produce one kg of meat. In case of beef, it is 7:1 and for pork it is 5:1. The secret of our food security is vegetarianism of the country. Given the effective demand and distribution pattern we have not been able to hold on to this production and consume this. Prices are, in fact, collapsing because we are not able to hold on to stocks. Paddy prices are falling to Rs 700 to Rs 900 per quintal. If your theory is true that a person required 2,400 kilocalories per day, then Andhra is selling rice at Rs 2 per kg. There should not have been any malnutrition in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala (where is rice is sold cheap through PDS). There is something beyond that. Malnutrition is because of many factors. Definitely, they (the people) need better diet and that does not mean only rice and wheat. People need more vegetables, meat and eggs. About 30-40 per cent of fruits and vegetables produced rot due to infrastructure and logistics problems and this is more than enough to meet our requirement.

Then where exactly is the problem?

Women’s education is crucial for a balanced diet. If we have more diversified food, we require not more foodgrains but more protein. In India, because of our culture, people do not prefer to eat beef or pork. The culture is so strong that eating beef and pork cannot takeoff in this country. Non-vegetarianism is largely poultry and fish. Poultry is very efficient converter of energy. For fish, you do not require foodgrains. So where is the pressure for foodgrains. So, that is the difference between India and China or any western country. So, in a way vegetarianism in India provides a safety valve. We can’t even consume the available 250 million tonnes of foodgrains produced in India. For the next 20 years, I don’t see any problem on the foodgrains front, India will not be deficit in foodgrains.

Is it not true our foodgrain and other farm productivity is low and that there is scope for improvement?

Our productivity level of rice is still hovering around 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes per hectare in the eastern states. However, technology is available in the country to produce up to 5,000-6,000 tonnes per hectare.

Why is it not happening?

Prices of foodgrains are already collapsing. You want to produce more rice and wheat for the people. This is not allowing the natural process of diversification. Inflation is not because of rice and wheat, it is because other food is not available. We need only 20 million tonnes of buffer stocks, but we have 63 million tonnes.

Then why do we have such a huge stock?

We should distribute that. The country does not need more than 20 million tonnes of critical foodgrain stocks.

What happens if have dro­ught in two successive years?

There is very little probability of having two successive droughts. We have not had two successive droughts since 1960s.

If we have two successive droughts we cannot even import as the world market might not have such huge stocks as it happened in the case of pulses a couple of years back?

In case of pulses, we are the largest producer as well as consumer. If you remain regular in the (world) market even pulses are available for import. If you buy a commodity regularly for five years, then the world is there to produce. It is true of wheat and rice as well. China is importing 52 million tonnes of soya every year. But who is producing it? Brazil and Argentina. If you want to keep a check on the flow imports or exports, go for tariff and not quantitative restrictions.

If there cannot be any quantitative restrictions such as ban on, say onion exports, how do you deal with crisis situation as it happened in 2010 winter, in case onion shortage?

For example, in case of onion shortage, you put an export tax. Are you protecting farmers when he is selling less than cost due to glut? If you are not, then you should allow him to make money during shortage. If you have to stabilise prices, the government will have to invest. Buffer stocking does not come free. Agriculture is inherently not a stable thing because nature interferes. We have 42 to 43 per cent area under irrigation. In cold and developed countries, there is a lot of snow because of and this melts in summer providing a lot of water. In India, it is largely a hot country. You need more water because of evaporation. Also the maximum one can go for irrigation is 62 to 63 per cent of arable land. Still we will be left with one third of land not irrigated. There are pending irrigation projects, which require an investment of about Rs 2 lakh crore.

How will you get the money? What should the budget do?

Rationalise subsidies and divert that amount to completing these irrigation projects. You cannot achieve certain objectives without spending money.

How do you replicate in the eastern region the high paddy productivity of Punjab?

Punjab and Haryana should not be producing paddy and Maharashtra should not be producing sugarcane. The pattern of cultivation has to be changed. One million hectares of paddy cultivation should be shifted from Punjab and Haryana belt to the eastern region. That should be our goal. If we stop producing rice from Punjab and Haryana, the region will be safe and country will be safe. Water table is going down 33 cm a year, which is dangerous and perhaps the steepest in the world. Food Corporation of India should pack up from Punjab and Haryana and shift to Bihar and West Bengal. Around 3 per cent of crop area in Maharashtra takes away 60 per cent of water in the state for sugarcane production. Water cost is four times higher in Maharasthra and sugarcane should be traditionally produced in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. This will also solve our water problem to a larger extent. If you see history of last 100 years, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh were seats of sugarcane cultivation. It will also provide natural barrier to floods from rivers in Nepal. If you go against the nature, God bless you.

krsudhaman@mydigitalfc.com