As the curtains be­gin to come down on 2011, we leave behind an eventful ye­ar. The Arab spring has transformed the face of West Asia. Tunisia, Li­bya, Egy­pt, Syria and Yemen have seen tumultuous uprisings. The wi­nds of change are still blowing unabated. Indignation about the inequity in the United Stat­es triggered the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement. It th­re­atens to pit the 99 per cent ag­ainst the super-wealthy 1 per cent as president Obama seeks a re-election.

President Putin’s election was a close call. Moscow has seen huge demonstration of protestors alleging widespread rigging. We saw shameful riots and arson in London and other parts of the UK. Social unrest in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland are mounting as austerity measures begin to bite. The Euro went for a free fall. At one point in time, its survival as a common currency was in question. For the first time in history, Standard and Poor’s downgraded the US’s credit rating. Both in China and India, growth has slowed. Social media has come under scrutiny. Attempts are underway to “censor” and “regulate” it. Closer home, Anna Hazare emerged as a crusader against corruption. He is waging a running battle against the establishment. But his pench­ant to appear as an extra-constitutional centre for legislation has begun to draw flak. The irrepressible Lalu Prasad Yadav has openly challenged Anna and asserted that legislation mu­st be crafted in Parliament and not from the pavements.

It seems that India’s cup of woes is full. The value of the Indian rupee against the US dollar has reached an all-time low of almost Rs 53 to a dollar. Trade deficits are rising. There are hushed conversations ab­o­ut an impending balance of pa­yments crisis. The rate of po­verty alleviation has plummeted. No one is talking about a double-digit growth. A growth rate that hovers around 7 per cent seems to be the most credible, largely because FIIs have liquidated their positions and the stock market has tanked. Sensex is hovering around 15,900. In January 2011, it was around 19,200.

There are many culprits being blamed for this gloomy economic and business scenario. Some economists are saying that it’s because the Indian economy is globally integrated; the woes are imported. They are blaming it on the European crisis and the slowdown of the US economy. Others are saying that the crisis is of India’s own making. Corruption, political gridlock, food inflation, fiscal deficit, populist measures, weak leadership and inability to implement reforms are all contributing to the sty­mieing of the India growth story. The Cassandras are beginning to write the epitaph of India. Fareed Zakaria, the well-known US journalist, has ventured to suggest that India represents the broken Bric. According to him, “New Delhi has for years expressed pride in being part of the Brics. If it doesn’t get its act together, 10 years from now people might still be praising the Brics, except that the ‘I’ in Bric might stand for Indonesia, not India.”

In coming to this conclusion, Fareed has focused on the UPA government’s inability to push through the opening of FDI in multi-brand retail. He believes it would “empower farmers, lower prices for consumers and create huge gains in productivity.” I would agree. Moreover, improvements in cold chain from plough to plate would eliminate colossal waste of fresh fruits and vegetables.

But one cannot ignore realpolitik. No measure of economic reform can succeed wit­hout a broad political consensus. At this time, that consensus simply does not exist. We have crusaders like Mohan Guruswamy, a Harvard alumnus and chairman, Centre of Policy Alternatives advising the government that the entry of large format retailers would be massively job-displacing.

The framing of the debate is disingenuous. It is not a fight between big retailers and small kirana shops. The Indian big fo­rmat retailers are already in business. Truth be told, the issue is the potential fight between large format Indian multi-brand retailers and large format foreign multi-brand retailers. There is a tinge of hyp­ocrisy in the assertion that lar­ge format retail stores owned by Indians will not harm small kiranas. And that all hell will bre­ak loose if 51 per cent ow­nership of the same store is passed on to a foreign enterprise like Carrefour.

Without doubt, we have to learn lessons from the Chinese experience. They were the first to open up retail. We need to shape our regulations that ser­ve the interest of all stakeholders including farmers, retailers and consumers. Even Gur­uswamy said in a signed article, “I have always held that the expansion of organised retail bus­iness, with or without FDI, is inevitable. The question is how do we make this transition with the least amount of pain?” Th­e­re is a need for a healthy debate to build political consensus and take safeguards based on the experience of large-format retail in both China and the US. I am optimistic that this process will happen.

But has the time come to write off the Indian tortoise in the global economic race? Th­ose who are busy writing the ep­itaph of the Indian economy are under-estimating the country’s strengths. Despite the glo­om and the darkening clouds, India has a vibrant services sector and a resilient manufacturing capability. It is a young nation bursting with energy, en­t­erprise, creativity and innovation. It is blessed with a functioning democracy, a fair judiciary and a vigilant media. Of course, we need to root out corruption, improve infrastructure and focus on equity and inclusion. For sure,we need to implement reforms and focus on agricultural productivity and rapid industrialisation.

But there is no doubt that we, as a nation, will prevail, ov­e­rcome and thrive. As we leave behind 2011 and enter a new year, let us raise a toast to the confidence in our country and our future generations.

(The writer is managing

director of Deloitte Consulting, India. These are his

personal views)