Power demand in India, China to touch 40% in 2030

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The combined share of electricity demand from India, China and Asean is expected to grow from 27.5 per cent in 2010 to 40.1 per cent in 2030. The traditionally developed countries will eventually lose ground in electricity demand to these emerging countries.

That’s not all. According to Frost & Sullivan, the growth of coal-fired generation is expected to fall massively during the subsequent decade, as developed countries decommission capacity and emerging nations become more diversified in their fuel mix.

“Rapid urbanisation and the creation of a middle class will drive electricity consumption in these emerging economies, as a wealthier population takes up electric appliances that are considered standard in the developed world,” the annual global power generation forecasts 2012 by Frost & Sullivan mentioned.

During the current decade, gas will see the highest growth rate among the major fuels. Nuclear power, despite some delays after the Fukushima disaster, will also expand strongly due to the large number of nuclear plants currently under construction, particularly in Asia.

Strong growth is projected for renewable energy too, with non-hydro renewables (wind, solar PV, CSP, biomass, geothermal and marine) substantially expanding their share of power generation over the next two decades, it said.

“The growth of coal is not far behind, as emerging nations such as China and India rely strongly on it. Neve­rtheless, growth of coal-fired generation is expected to fall during the subsequent decade, as deve­l­oped nations deco­m­mis­sion capacity and em­e­rging nations become more diversified in their fuel mix,” an analyst of Frost & Sullivan told Financial Chronicle.

While both countries are very strong in hydro and wind power, it is in gas and nuclear that these nations will massively outpace developments elsewhere, albeit growing from currently very modest levels, he said.


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