Macquarie sees BJP, allies winning 230 seats in elections

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Macquarie says markets are pricing in the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party winning 230 seats in the ongoing elections, calling that its "base case" as well.

Macquarie estimates a number around that range could spark gains of 5-10 percent over one month in Indian shares, while a number above 240 seats would spark 15-20 percent gains.

By contrast, should BJP and allies clinch less than 200 seats, Macquarie says markets could fall 15-20 percent over the next month.

BJP and its allies would need 273 seats to clinch a majority, although analysts say a number near it would comfort markets and raise the prospect of a more stable coalition.

Macquarie says the drivers of a rally after positive elections results could continue to be cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials and infrastructure.

Its top-five recommended cyclical stocks to buy for election results include Larsen & Toubro Ltd (LART.NS), Axis Bank Ltd (AXBK.NS), State Bank of India, Adani Port and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSE.NS) and IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd (IRBI.NS).

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