June quarter GDP to be at 6 pc; FY15 GDP at 5.4 pc: BofA-ML

Tags: News
India's GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this fiscal year is likely to be around 6 per cent up from 4.6 per cent in March, driven up by higher industrial growth, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report says.

According to the global financial services major, the country's economic growth rate is expected to revive amid improvement in business confidence level and industrial production.

Boosted by higher industrial growth, the GDP in the first quarter of this fiscal year is expected to have expanded by around 6 per cent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a research report today.

The GDP data is due to be released on August 29.

Going forward, India's economic growth rate is expected to revive to 5.4 per cent this fiscal year and would upgrade to 6.5 per cent in the next financial year (FY16).

"Incoming data support our standing call that growth will bottom out in FY15," the BofA ML report said adding that " we forecast that growth will revive to 5.4 per cent in FY15 and 6.5 per cent in FY16."

The country's GDP growth was 4.5 per cent in FY13.

"We have upgraded our panel of lead indicators for the first time since April 2012," BofA-ML said.

The 10 lead indicators as per the report include real cash demand, industrial production, loan demand, confidence, earnings, construction, traffic, telecom subscribers and OECD lead indicator.

"Our lead indicator panel is now sending stronger signals that growth is bottoming out," the report said.

BofA-ML has upgraded loan demand to "neutral" from "negative" saying that t credit offtake is bottoming.

The report further said that confidence is improving, while risk aversion is falling and has upgraded industrial production to neutral from negative.

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