India FY15 GDP to improve to 5.3% from 4.7% in FY14
Feb 11 2014 , New Delhi
According to Standard Chartered, the outcome of the May 2014 elections would hold the key to a sustained growth revival.
The global financial services major, maintains its FY14 GDP growth forecast of 4.7 per cent and in the next financial year (FY15), the country's economic growth is likely to improve 5.3 per cent.
The report further added that "...An unexpected election poses risks to our forecast on both sides."
According to advanced estimates by the Central Statistics Office, India's GDP in the current fiscal would improve to 4.9 per cent from 4.5 per cent a year ago, mainly on account of the good performance of the farm sector.
On the official advance GDP growth estimate Standard Chartered said: "We think this improvement is illusory, as FY14 growth was pushed up by data revisions to FY12 and FY13 GDP."
Normalising the data for all years for statistical anomalies is likely to confirm that growth lost momentum in FY14 relative to FY13, the report added.
It further added that consumption and investment, which contribute more than 90 per cent of GDP, slowed markedly. Moreover, non-agricultural GDP excluding government expenditure revealed sluggish private-sector activity.
"Our view that India's growth remains trapped in a low range remains intact," it added.
The Stanchart report further said that "while the government has recently taken steps to improve the investment climate, the positive impact of these measures is unlikely to be felt until election-related political uncertainty is over."