There are certain things even God cannot do, not even in what is touted as his own country. And man can only do as much – worry, sweat and try to rein in the climate. It is still March and Kerala, which its government hardsells as a hot tourist destination, is already a smouldering oven. And indications are that the days ahead will be too hot to handle. Right from now, temperatures across all districts in Kerala have risen to an unprecedented high. Perhaps for the first time, there are reports of people getting sunstrokes and sunburns from different parts of Kerala.

“The maximum temperature in Kerala has risen by 0.2 degrees while the minimum temperature has gone up by 0.9 degrees over the past year,” said K Santosh, director of the Thiruvananthapuram office of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). According to an IMD report, it is likely to continue. “The maximum temperature rose appreciably above normal in Kollam district and rose appreciably in Thrissur district,” said a recent IMD report.

PV Joseph, professor emeritus of Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), thinks that this is a signal of global warming which is affecting not just Kerala but different parts of the world. However, Joseph, a former IMD director, argues the heat wave condition in Kerala this year is not anything abnormal. “It is hotter. It is quite warm. But can’t say hotter than earlier,” he said. There are no abnormal changes that we notice this year in the changing temperature levels,” seconds K Mohanakumar from the department of atmospheric sciences in CUSAT.

A major reason for this, according to Joseph, is the lack of clouding and rain. “January and February are generally rain-free months in most of the southern states. But March should have one or two spells of rains.”

Due to favourable conditions last week, Kerala had, what Joseph calls, isolated thundershowers on March 16 and 17. “These are thundershowers and wherever thunder clouds form it rains. It will give rain for about 10 km. Then there will be big stretches without rain,” he said.

“This spell occurred because there is always a cloud band near the equator. This year it is particularly strong south of the equator. In this particular time, it should be so. But the cloud band south of the equator is a little stronger than usual this year. And if that band goes north of the equator only then Kerala will get rain. This happened on 16 and 17 of March,” he added.

Joseph warns that the next spell could be far off. “The cloud band has again gone south of the equator; immediately there is no chance for rains, unless rain and clouding comes it will not cool. Everyday, sunshine is directly affecting land and that is the reason for temperature rising daily in Kerala,” he explains.

According to him, the next spell of rain could occur again when the cloud band moves the north of equator. “That should happen, but there is no immediate prospect now.” Therefore, it will continue to be warm for some more time.

There are two things that are causing the current rise in temperature. One is the global warming phenomenon, which is common to all geographies. So, generally the temperature is on rise across the world. Joseph suggests a second reason for the current heat wave conditions.

“Towards the end of last year there was an El Nino, that is still continuing in the Pacific. Eastern Pacific is still warm and when an El Nino occurs, Indian Ocean also becomes warm. So that is contributing to the rise in temperature. The tropical portion of Indian Ocean is slightly warmer than usual. The forecast given is that by middle of this year it will change into colder conditions in the Pacific,” said Joseph.

According to a recent report by the Climate Prediction Centre, a unit of the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the deadly El Nino weather anomaly should dissipate by early summer in the northern hemisphere, but there is a chance a weak version will linger for the rest of 2010.

“El Nino may weaken and its impact on the monsoon may wane,” said Michael Ferrari, V-P, Weather Trends International, in a report. “Weakening of El Nino is a positive sign. Two consecutive years of drought is a rare phenomenon climatically,” said Ajit Tyagi, director general of India Meteorological Department. IMD will make its first monsoon forecast by the middle of April after considering different factors.

El Nino results in an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific and wreaks havoc in global weather patterns, especially the Asia Pacific region. It was blamed for the weak monsoon last year in India. Tyagi believes that a repeat of last year is positively not going to happen.