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Are video-game makers Hollywood’s next takeover bait? With their business models under threat and shares in the doldrums, Electronic Arts (EA) and its rivals look ripe for the picking by media groups such as Walt Disney. But much as shareholders of game firms might hope for a nice exit, they shouldn’t bank on a quick acquisition payday.
The combination is compelling. Publishing video games is a lot like making movies: Invest millions in development and pray for blockbusters.
As in Hollywood, the trick is to establish successful franchises and ride them to riches. Studios look for the next Harry Potter, while game publishers need the next Call of Duty.
Most of the major studios already have been driven into the arms of the News Corporation, Sony and other media conglomerates. These companies could lay claim to content and corporate synergies that offset the volatility of the film business.
With some of the biggest gaming groups now struggling, it looks like a buyer’s market for media giants. Electronic Arts and Take-Two Interactive Software shares are off 70 per cent from their highs in recent years. THQ, a maker of many titles for Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii, is down 90 per cent from its recent highs. Their combined enterprise value is now around $4 billion.
But there’s no rush. Next year isn’t shaping up well for gamers, so the stocks may become even cheaper. EA will be cutting the number of titles released to 30 from 50. Take-Two, creator of Grand Theft Auto, is expected to report its fourth losing year in the last five. THQ has no breakout hits on the horizon, analysts at Wells Fargo note.
The industry is also struggling to adapt to a changing market where packaged games sold through retailers are losing ground to online alternatives. That trend powered the $300 million purchase last month by Electronic Arts of Playfish, a social networking game developer.
A rich corporate parent might be comforting for video game shareholders during this wrenching transition. But big media firms can wait. Indeed, they can learn from the gamers themselves.
—International Herald Tribune


















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