North Korea is the world’s most secluded country. Independent news gathering is impossible under one of the last Stalinist regimes and the official, state-controlled media is rudimentary and notoriously tight-lipped. Particularly in South Korea, but also in Japan and in China, there are numerous specialists who closely monitor events in North Korea and who have learnt the art of communist doublespeak. They know what to make of official statements and they manage to read between the lines.

Since autumn 2008 there have been rumours and speculations about the state of health of “dear leader” Kim Jong Il. It is said that he had suffered a stroke, some sources even report that his mental capacities are affected. Even Kim’s visit to Beijing in early May did not disperse speculations that a change at the top of the “hermit kingdom” will not be too far off. Recently, there have been new indications that things are moving in Pyongyang. Official North Korean media announced that this coming September the Workers’ Party will hold its congress. Although such an assembly should be held every five years, the last time the congress convened was 44 years ago, in 1966. The last major meeting of party members occurred in 1980, when Kim Jong Il was elected to the politburo, an event that signalled that he was destined to become the successor of his father and founder of the North Korean state, Kim Il Sung.

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is a communist state by definition and constitution like the People’s Republic of China or the former Soviet Union. However, there is one very significant difference. By its nature, the regime that controls the country with absolute power is a monarchy. Since its creation, in 1949, the country has had two leaders, Kim Il Sung and his son, Kim Jong Il. Now that the life of the latter seems to come to a close, Pyongyang is preparing for the transfer of power to the third generation of the Kims. Amongst the observers of Korean affairs there is widespread agreement that presently the path is being prepared for Kim Jong Il’s youngest son, the 27-year-old Kim Jong Un.

Dictatorships, whatever their ideological orientation, suffer from a number of severe structural deficits. The most serious among them is the issue of succession. By definition, dictatorships have no democratic legitimacy, they do not enjoy the mandate of the people. Of course, dictators, too, like to show to the world that they have the support of their subjects. But their manipulated “elections”, where the verdict tends to be unanimous, bear no credibility whatsoever. The only legitimacy dictators can claim is history. There can be no doubt that in the eyes of the Chinese, Mao Zedong had the legitimacy of history when he brought to an end one of the bloodiest civil wars in human history and when he founded the People’s Republic. The same goes for Kim Il Sung, the “father” of the North Korean nation. But what about their successors? In Spain, Generalissimo Franco realised the fragility of his reign and, therefore, reinstituted monarchy. He thought that the crown prince, over whose education he had kept a careful watch and whom he had kept separated from his exiled father, would keep the Franquist regime in place. He could never have imagined that the young King Juan Carlos would turn out to become a pillar of democracy in Spain.

The succession in North Korea is complicated by the young age of the “crown prince”. Little is known about Kim Jong Un, except his age. There is some speculation that he may have gone to school in Switzerland. For a long time it had been presumed that his elder half-brother Kim Jong Nam would be prepared for leadership. However, Kim Jong Nam had been disqualified, when in 2001 he was caught by Japanese border police trying to enter Japan illegally on a forged Dominican Republic passport. Today, he lives in Macau, which since 1999 is a Special Administrative Region of China. In an interview with a Japanese newspaper Kim Jong Nam declared that he was not interested in taking over the leadership of North Korea.

Of course, as in any royal court, there are rivalries not only amongst siblings but also amongst their courtiers. It seems that the ailing Kim Jong Il has been able to muster the support of the apparatus – namely, the numerous generals in the armed forces — to accept his youngest son as the future leader. It seems that Kim Jong II’s brother-in-law, Chang Sung Taek, who heads the security apparatus, has been designated as “regent”, to act as a guide to the new leader. The world will know more once the party conference has been held this autumn.