As US retailers pull out all the stops for the holiday shopping season, experts have advice to offer: sell it cheap or make customers

an offer they cannot refuse.

Shoppers turned out in strong numbers for Black Friday, the unofficial kick-off to the holiday season, but investors questioned whether the momentum will last. To keep customers coming through their doors as unemployment rises and income levels wane, retailers will need to offer everything from hot products and compelling prices, to a good in-store experience and prompt service post shopping, said Michael Dart, senior partner at Kurt Salmon Associates. “We are seeing a paradigm shift in the way consumer interprets value and what they are looking for,” he said.

But in a sea of competing discounts, which retailers will manage to get American customers to open their wallets again? “Make no mistake, in all segments of retail this season it is going to be a Darwinistic dog-fight. Retailers brace yourselves!,” said Lawrence Creatura, equity market strategist and portfolio manager at Federated Clover in Rochester, New York.

“All the winners will fall in one of two categories. Either they will sell value products or they will sell differentiated products,” Creatura said. That is good news for discount chains like Wal-Mart Stores Inc, off-price retailers like TJX Co and the dollar stores.

Earlier this week, Barclays forecast a same-store sales growth of 4% at Dollar Tree and a rise of 1% at Big Lots for the holiday season.

Kurt Salmon’s Dart added that “intense value” did not mean just the discount stores. “We are not just talking about Wal-Mart or Costco, but folks like J Crew or Aeropostale who still offer great products, have a keen price point and provide consumers with a great experience,” he said.

Most also believe the customer might still be willing to shell out extra bucks if they think the product is worth it. “If you walk into the mall and look at the Apple store, there are no value goods in there... yet it’s the most crowded store,” Creatura said. The trend might also bode well for companies like Deckers — whose red-hot UGG boots were one of the hottest footwear brands last holiday season.

Online retailers like eBay and Amazon.com are also expected to have a strong showing as consumers research competitive prices.

While US retailers are prepared for a subdued holiday shopping season, online retail is seen as a bright spot. According to a study by Shop.org last month, 45.8% of online retailers expect their holiday sales to rise at least 15% from last year.

With electronic readers touted as one of the hottest gifts this holiday season, Amazon.com has cut the price of its best-selling Kindle electronic reader and launched a global version. It has also slashed prices on top pre-ordered hardback books to fight Wal-Mart’s online push. Even eBay’s focus on upgrading the overall user experience, getting more listings and adding sellers with a high reputation are resonating with shoppers, Dart said. “What eBay is currently accomplishing... really fits the paradigm of increase in intense value,” Dart said.