Net capital inflows to India to rise sharply in FY15: Nomura

The net capital inflows to India are likely to increase sharply in FY'15, buoyed by the historic victory of the BJP-led NDA headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, says a Nomura report.

According to the global financial services firm, this historic victory has enthused investor confidence that the government will pursue reforms and policies that will put India back on high growth trajectory over the medium term.

"We expect a $25 billion balance of payments surplus in FY'15," Nomura said in a research note.

According to the report, the import bill is likely to rise slightly on gradual relaxation in gold import restrictions and the non-gold import bill may also rise slightly as growth picks up in the latter half of FY'15.

The rise in import bill will be offset by strong exports on the back of higher global demand, it said.

"Overall, we expect the current account deficit (CAD) to remain within sustainable levels, under 2 per cent of GDP in FY'15," the report said.

According to RBI data released yesterday, in FY'14, CAD narrowed to 1.7 per cent of GDP, or $32.4 billion, from 4.7 per cent, or $87.8 billion, in the previous fiscal.

The decline in the deficit continues to be driven by lower gold imports and softer non-oil, non-gold demand, which helped contain the merchandise trade deficit, experts said.

British brokerage firm Barclays also believes that given the government's measures to restrict gold imports largely remain in place, we do not think the current account deficit will widen significantly in the first half of FY'15.

CAD is expected to be lower than the earlier forecast of $50 billion (2.4 per cent of GDP) in FY'15.

India's current account deficit narrowed sharply to $1.2 billion, or 0.2 per cent of GDP, in Q4 of FY'14 from $18.1 billion, or 3.6 per cent of GDP, a year ago. In the December quarter, it stood at $4.2 billion or 0.9 per cent of GDP.

The lower CAD was primarily on account of a decline in trade deficit as imports fell sharper than exports.

Post new comment

E-mail ID will not be published
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

EDITORIAL OF THE DAY

  • Tax offenders stashing black money abroad must be booked

    There can be little doubt that for the government to get at those salting away unaccounted and untaxed money in foreign banks is a long overdue exerci

FC NEWSLETTER

Stay informed on our latest news!

INTERVIEWS

GV Nageswara Rao

MD & CEO, IDBI Federal Life

Timothy Moe

Goldman Sachs

Chander Mohan Sethi

CMD, Reckitt Benckiser India

COLUMNIST

Arun Nigavekar

Riding the product startup wave

That the Indian youth is undergoing a massive change in ...

Zehra Naqvi

Rememberance and forgetting are crucial

Memories are so vital to our lives that they can ...

Dharmendra Khandal

Sandalwood may get extinct if not protected

When we talk of sandalwood, the most common usage that ...

INTERVIEWS

William D. Green

Chairman & CEO, Accenture