Japan's economic growth beats estimates on unexpected surge in capex

Japan's first quarter growth handily beat initial estimates on an unexpected surge in capital spending, fresh signs the world's third-biggest economy is in better shape to weather a hit to consumption from a sale tax hike.

Adding to the optimism, current account data showed foreign visitors spent more money than Japanese travelling abroad for the first time in 44 years, boding well for Japanese companies in the retail and tourism industry.

The positive figures underscore the Bank of Japan's view the economy will recover moderately led by domestic demand, with growing evidence of an uptick in business investment a particularly pleasing result for policy makers.

"Companies don't tend to ramp up spending ahead of the sales tax hike, so the increase likely reflects improvements in corporate profits and diminishing slack," said Mitsumaru Kumagai, chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Research.

Japan's economy grew an annualised 6.7% in the first quarter, data showed on Monday, up sharply from an initial reading of a 5.9% rise, and confirmed the fastest pace of growth since July-September 2011. The data beat the median market forecast for GDP to rise 5.6%.

The upward revision was largely due to a recalculation in capital expenditure that took into account finance ministry data showing a solid increase in spending.

Corporate capital spending rose 7.6%, up from a preliminary 4.9% increase, an encouraging sign for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who is keen for companies to spend more of its cash pile to drive a sustainable economic recovery.

On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.6% in January-March, up from a preliminary 1.5% expansion. It compared with a median market forecast for a 1.4% rise.

Some analysts warn of uncertainty ahead as companies start to feel the pinch from an increase in the sales tax to 8% from 5% in April.

"A surge in domestic demand helped Japan achieve high growth in January-March. But a reactionary slump is inevitable, which means the economy will contract in April-June," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Moreover, analysts say weak factory output and household spending falling at the fastest pace in three years in April point to the tax hike's chilling effect on consumer spending.

Still, there are signs the economy will overcome the temporary dips in growth.

Under its "qualitative and quantitative easing" programme launched in April last year, the BOJ has been aggressively pumping money into markets on hope that banks will lend more to companies, which will then boost wages and capital spending.

Bank lending rose 2.3% in May from a year earlier, increasing for the 31st straight month and growing at a faster pace than 2.1% in April, BOJ data showed on Monday.

There was little market reaction to the GDP data. "The market is more focused on data pertaining to inflation and its possible impact on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy," said Shinichiro Kadota, chief Japan FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

The BOJ has said Japan can weather the tax hike impact and resume a moderate recovery in July-September as exports - now a soft spot in the economy - gradually pick up.

Reflecting the continued weakness in exports, Japan posted its biggest trade deficit for the month of April, leading to a smaller-than-expected current account surplus, Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday.

But the current account data also showed that the travel balance swung to a surplus for the first time since 1970 as foreign visitors outnumbered Japanese travelling abroad.

Post new comment

E-mail ID will not be published
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.


  • Kejriwal will do well to ignore the bickering and get on with work

    Psychologists explain implosion as a form of behaviour involving intensive recollection and review of anxiety-producing situations or events in an att


Stay informed on our latest news!


Sarthak Raychaudhuri

vice-president, HR, Asia South Whirlpool of India

GV Nageswara Rao

MD & CEO, IDBI Federal Life

Timothy Moe

Goldman Sachs

Today's Columns

Simon J Evenett

Are you keeping an eye on BRIC reforms?

When the history of state action during the crisis era ...

Kuruvilla Pandikattu SJ

How do we explain pain and passion?

The holy week that the christians celebrate this week recalls ...

Shona Adhikari

Anjolie Ela Menon, the storyteller, is back

Anjolie Ela Menon, one of India’s most celebrated artists, is ...


William D. Green

Chairman & CEO, Accenture