Citigroup revises India 2011-12 growth forecast downward to 7.1%

International financial conglomerate Citigroup today revised its 2011-12 growth forecast for the Indian economy

RELATED ARTICLES

downward to 7.1 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.6 per cent on account of the global slowdown and domestic factors like a tight monetary policy.

"We are reducing our FY'12 GDP estimate from 7.6 per cent to 7.1 per cent," Citi Investment Research & Analysis said in its 'India Microscope' report.

The global major has also revised its forecast for India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2012-13 downward to 7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.5 per cent.

Citi's growth projection for the current fiscal is way below the 7.6 per cent forecast made by the Reserve Bank.

It is also lower than the projections made by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD), Centre for Monitoring of India Economy ( CMIE), Crisil and ICRA, who have all pegged India's GDP growth in 2011-12 at between 7.3 per cent and 7.6 per cent.

The Indian economy expanded by 8.5 per cent in 2010-11. Citi said the hangover from the pre-recession credit boom will cast a shadow in 2012 as well.

"In addition, domestic issues, including supply-side bottlenecks in the coal and power sector and the lagged impact of monetary tightening, are taking a toll on domestic growth," it said.

It said the current situation is reminiscent of 2008-09, when the Indian economy faced a plethora of problems, including the global crisis, delayed investments due to uncertainty on the election front and aggressive policy tightening resulting in a slowdown.

"Unfortunately, India has less manoeuvrability relative to the 2008 pullback given its increased fiscal constraints, elevated levels of inflation and government decision-making. This will likely result in to weak growth...," Citi said.

While issues like environmental clearances and land acquisition have affected infrastructure sectors like power and coal, the high interest rate regime has been blamed for making credit expensive and leading to a halt in fresh investment.

The RBI has hiked lending rates 13 times by a total of 350 basis points since March, 2010, to curb inflation.

In addition, the world economy has been affected by the debt crisis in the euro zone and a slowdown and high unemployment in the US.

Regarding inflation, Citi said: "We expect inflation to remain over 9 per cent till the end of 2011 and average 7.5-8 per cent in 2012."

Headline inflation has been above the 9 per cent-mark since December last year and stood at 9.73 per cent in October this year.

Post new comment

E-mail ID will not be published
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

FC NEWSLETTER

Stay informed on our latest news!

EDITORIAL OF THE DAY

  • Foreign brokerages must be Street-smart to win battle of bourses

    Earlier this week, Financial Chronicle reported that foreign brokerages were failing to crack the retail broking market in India, once seen as very pr

INTERVIEWS

GV Nageswara Rao

MD & CEO, IDBI Federal Life

Timothy Moe

Goldman Sachs

Chander Mohan Sethi

CMD, Reckitt Benckiser India

COLUMNIST

Urs Schöttli

India needs to project soft power

The rise from a regional to a global p­ower is ...

Robert Clements

Walk the talk when giving others advice

The only thing one does with advice is to pass ...

Bubbles Sabharwal

Keeping our value system uninjured

Every time one reads a newspaper, there is fr­esh news ...