Chinese slowdown could impact Indian exports: Fitch

A Chinese economic slowdown could adversely impact Indian exporters, as global markets could see

RELATED ARTICLES

a flooding of low-cost goods from China, according to credit ratings agency Fitch.

Slowing economic activities in China would result in excess capacities that could hit the overall demand-supply balance, it added.

"Over the longer term... A slowing China would result in excess capacities across many manufacturing sectors and would change global demand-supply dynamics, especially given China's low cost of production.

"This could result in intense competition for India's manufacturing exports due to low-cost Chinese goods and put pressure on profitability for exporters," Fitch Ratings said.

In the short-term, however, the impact would be limited due to the growing trade deficit between the two economic powerhouses, with India's exports to China accounting for only a small part of its total overseas shipments.

In the first half of 2010-11 (April-September), India's exports to China were worth $ 5.5 billion, while imports were to the tune of $ 19.2 billion.

In the 2009-10 fiscal, India's exports to China were $ 11.6 billion and the country's import bill from China stood at $ 30.8 billion.

However, a Chinese slowdown would make global commodity prices cheaper and help Indian corporates, said 'Fitch Street View: Corporates-India vs China'.

It added that India's domestic market would also be affected due to overcapacity in China which would put pressure on margins of Indian firms.

Fitch said that while the direct impact of a sharp slowdown in world's second largest economy would be manageable for India, the indirect impact of a global slowdown leading to capital outflows, investment sentiment and currency volatility is difficult to quantify.

Corporates in both the economies are susceptible to commodity shocks due to high reliance on imports, it said.

"In the event of a China slowdown, commodity prices would fall which, when taken in isolation, may be marginally positive for corporates in India," Fitch added.

It said that while India's regulatory environment has remained focused on controlling credit growth, the growth in China has to a large extent been funded by bank credit.

Post new comment

E-mail ID will not be published
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

FC NEWSLETTER

Stay informed on our latest news!

EDITORIAL OF THE DAY

  • Foreign brokerages must be Street-smart to win battle of bourses

    Earlier this week, Financial Chronicle reported that foreign brokerages were failing to crack the retail broking market in India, once seen as very pr

INTERVIEWS

GV Nageswara Rao

MD & CEO, IDBI Federal Life

Timothy Moe

Goldman Sachs

Chander Mohan Sethi

CMD, Reckitt Benckiser India

COLUMNIST

Urs Schöttli

India needs to project soft power

The rise from a regional to a global p­ower is ...

Robert Clements

Walk the talk when giving others advice

The only thing one does with advice is to pass ...

Bubbles Sabharwal

Keeping our value system uninjured

Every time one reads a newspaper, there is fr­esh news ...