Infy stock on decline, analysts’ signals mixed
Apr 18 2011 , Mumbai
But leading brokerages including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, BNP Paribas and Macquarie maintained their rating on the stock and appeared optimistic about the company’s strong revenue growth outlook for the whole of the current year. Only CLSA and Credit Suisse downgraded the stock.
After falling nearly 10 per cent last Friday, the Infosys share fell further on Monday and ended 2.8 per cent down at Rs 2,905.20 on BSE, underperforming Sensex that fell by 1.5 per cent. Tracking weak Asian markets, benchmark indices on the Indian market fell for the second straight session, drawn down by software and realty shares.
So far this month BSE’s IT index has dropped nearly 7 per cent against a 1.7 per cent fall in Sensex. This is in sharp contrast to a 4.8 per cent gain in last month when the IT index actually rose by 4.7 per cent.
Infosys’ indication of an 18-20 per cent growth in dollar revenue this year was in line with analyst expectations, though the company fell short of the target earning per share, which it guided at Rs 126-128. Analysts expect further margin contraction because of currency appreciation and a higher wage bill.
However, the company’s strong hiring guidance and robust demand painted an optimistic picture.
Infosys is also battling bad publicity following the resignation of Mohandas Pai, its human resources chief and one-time CFO. Analysts said the company could lose some of its sheen and narrow its premium gap with rivals TCS and Wipro because of uncertainty surrounding top management changes and softening profit margins.
Infosys trades at 19.9 times its forward earnings compared to 24.8 times its trailing earnings. TCS trades at 22.8 times its forward earnings, according to Reuter. “We believe Infosys’ guidance is assuming a bear-case scenario of 15 per cent revenue growth, a 300 basis point ebit margin decline, currency strength, flat pricing and a 27 per cent tax rate. In our view, the risk of all these negative factors converging is low. We note that in the last seven of eight years, Infosys has beaten its EPS guidance by an average 13 per cent. We expect multiples to expand as greater clarity on growth emerges,” Goldman Sachs said. The brokerage has maintained ‘buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 3,520 a share. According to Abhiram Eleswarapu of BNP Paribas, the EPS guidance builds in a 300 basis point margin decline for the rupee appreciation against the dollar, a utilisation drop and increased hiring and wages.
“Indeed, the 5.5 per cent fall in utilisation and continued solid hiring point to this being a one-off poor quarter,” the brokerage said, reiterating a ‘buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 3,800 per share. MF Global’s Vihang Naik and Varun Vijayan said structural shifts like preferring growth to pricing and investments in restructuring could make this year an exception for Infosys. Macquarie, which has reiterated ‘outperform’ rating on the Infosys stock, remains bullish about a strong demand outlook, though it does not factor in any pricing improvement. Downgrading the stock to ‘neutral’ from ‘outperform’, Credit Suisse said the stock would be trading range-bound in the near-term.




















Post new comment