Infy stock on decline, analysts’ signals mixed

The Infosys Technologies share fell nearly 13 per cent in two trading sessions after the company last week reported tepid January-March earnings.

But leading brokerages including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, BNP Paribas and Macquarie maintained their rating on the stock and appeared optimistic about the company’s strong revenue growth outlook for the whole of the current year. Only CLSA and Credit Suisse downgraded the stock.

After falling nearly 10 per cent last Friday, the Infosys share fell further on Monday and ended 2.8 per cent down at Rs 2,905.20 on BSE, underperforming Sensex that fell by 1.5 per cent. Tracking weak Asian markets, benchmark indices on the Indian market fell for the second straight session, drawn down by software and realty shares.

So far this month BSE’s IT index has dropped nearly 7 per cent against a 1.7 per cent fall in Sensex. This is in sharp contrast to a 4.8 per cent gain in last month when the IT index actually rose by 4.7 per cent.

Infosys’ indication of an 18-20 per cent growth in dollar revenue this year was in line with analyst expectations, though the company fell short of the target earning per share, which it guided at Rs 126-128. Analysts expect further margin contraction because of currency appreciation and a higher wage bill.

However, the company’s strong hiring guidance and robust demand painted an optimistic picture.

Infosys is also battling bad publicity following the resignation of Mohandas Pai, its human resources chief and one-time CFO. Analysts said the company could lose so­me of its sheen and narrow its premium gap with rivals TCS and Wipro because of uncertainty surrounding top management changes and softening profit margins.

Infosys trades at 19.9 ti­mes its forward earnings co­mpared to 24.8 times its tr­a­iling earnings. TCS trades at 22.8 times its forward earnings, according to Reuter. “We believe Infosys’ guidan­ce is assuming a bear-case scenario of 15 per cent re­ve­nue growth, a 300 basis po­int ebit margin decl­ine, cur­rency strength, flat prici­ng and a 27 per cent tax rate. In our view, the risk of all these negative factors co­nv­erging is low. We note that in the last seven of eight ye­a­rs, In­fosys has beaten its EPS gu­idance by an average 13 per cent. We expect mul­ti­ples to expand as greater cl­arity on growth emerges,” Go­ldman Sachs said. The brokerage has maintained ‘buy’ rating with a target pr­ice of Rs 3,520 a share. According to Abhiram El­eswarapu of BNP Paribas, the EPS guidance builds in a 300 basis point margin dec­line for the rupee appreciati­on against the dollar, a utilisation drop and increased hiring and wages.

“Indeed, the 5.5 per cent fall in utilisation and continued solid hiring point to this being a one-off poor quarter,” the brokerage said, reiterating a ‘buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 3,800 per share. MF Global’s Vihang Naik and Varun Vij­ayan said stru­ctural shifts li­ke preferring growth to pricing and investments in restructuring could make this year an exception for Info­sys. Macquarie, whi­ch has reiterated ‘outperform’ rating on the Infosys stock, remains bullish about a strong demand outlook, though it does not factor in any pricing improvement. Downgrading the stock to ‘neutral’ from ‘outperfo­rm’, Credit Suisse said the stock would be trading range-bound in the near-term.

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